TRANSFORMATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN UKRAINE DURING THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY

Abstract

This study examines the transformation of demographic processes in Ukraine under the conditions of the russian-ukrainian war and assesses its impact on demographic security, human capital, and the prospects for the country’s post-war recovery. Extensive human losses, large-scale forced external and internal migration, declining fertility, increasing mortality, deterioration of the population’s age structure, and the reduction of labour potential have intensified demographic challenges and highlighted the need for a comprehensive assessment of contemporary demographic transformations and the development of an effective state demographic policy. The aim of the study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the transformation of demographic processes in Ukraine under the impact of the russian-ukrainian war and to substantiate the priority directions for post-war demographic recovery. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the integrated analysis of the interrelationships between natural population change, forced migration, war-related population losses, and spatial demographic transformations based on international statistical data and a comparative assessment of the post-conflict demographic experience of Serbia. The research methodology combines retrospective analysis with systems, statistical, comparative-geographical, cartographic, and forecasting methods, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of the scale of the demographic crisis and the identification of potential recovery pathways. The findings indicate that the war has significantly accelerated depopulation, intensified distortions in the age and sex structure of the population, caused a large-scale outflow of people of reproductive and working age, and deepened regional demographic disparities. A comparative analysis with Serbia demonstrates that the demographic consequences of armed conflicts persist for decades after the cessation of hostilities, affecting population dynamics, labour resources, and socio-economic development. Based on the United Nations population projections to 2050, the study identifies possible demographic scenarios for Ukraine and assesses the risks of continued population decline. The paper substantiates the priority directions of state demographic policy aimed at facilitating the return of forcibly displaced persons, supporting fertility, preserving human capital, strengthening family policy, integrating war veterans, improving the healthcare system, and implementing a comprehensive demographic resilience policy as a key component of Ukraine’s post-war recovery.

REFERENCES / ЛІТЕРАТУРА

1. Population Europe (2023). Depopulation in Ukraine: Low fertility, high mortality and emigration. CPC. https://population-europe.eu/research/books-and-reports/depopulationukraine-low-fertility-high-mortality-and-emigration

2. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2026). Official website. https://stat.gov.ua/uk

[Державна служба статистики України (2026)].

3. United Nations Development Programme, World Bank, European Commission, & Government of Ukraine (2025). Ukraine — Fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5): February 2022 — December 2025. https://www.undp.org/ukraine/publications/ ukraine-fifth-rapid-damage-and-needs-assessment-rdna5-february-2022-december-2025

4. World Bank (2025). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment released. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukrainerecovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released

5. Youtube (2026). Libanova: Migration. There are three threats. 5 million Ukrainians have left the country. Will it be possible to bring them back? https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=3nIUHOE9nN0

[Youtube (2026). Лібанова: міграція. Є три загрози. 5 млн українців виїхали з країни. Чи вийде повернути людей?].

6. Gor, A. (2024). Men will not return to Ukraine, and the reason is not only the war: Interview with a demographer. Telegraph. https://news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/obshhestvo/ 2024-06-05/5855994-choloviki-ne-povernutsya-v-ukrainu-i-prichina-ne-lishe-u-viyni-intervyuz-vchenim-demografom

[Гор, А. (2024). Чоловіки не повернуться в Україну, і причина не лише у війні: інтерв’ю з ученим-демографом. Телеграф].

7. Naporchuk, D. (2024). Demographic factors as a component of Ukraine’s economic security under martial law: Challenges and threats. Modeling the Development of the Economic Systems, 4, 145—150. https://doi.org/10.31891/mdes/2024-14-20

[Напорчук, Д. (2024). Демографічні фактори як складова економічної безпеки України в умовах воєнного стану: виклики та загрози. Modeling the Development of the Economic Systems, 4, 145—150].

8. Lytvynchuk, O., & Yurkivsky, A. (2023). Migration processes in Ukraine: threats in the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Economics, Management and Administration, 2 (104), 71—78. https://doi.org/10.26642/ema-2023-2(104)-71-78

[Литвинчук, О. В., & Юрківський, О. Й. (2023). Міграційні процеси в Україні: загрози в умовах російсько-української війни. Економіка, управління та адміністрування, 2 (104), 71—78].

9. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2026). Population and migration. https://stat.gov.ua/ en/topics/population-and-migration

[Державна служба статистики України (2026). Населення та міграція].

10. United Nations (2024). Ukraine: Population drops by 10 million since Russia invaded in 2014, UNFPA reports. https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2024/10/99463/ ukraine-population-drops-10-million-russia-invaded-2014-unfpa-reports

11. United Nations Ukraine (2025). UN Commission: Deportation and forced transfer of Ukrainian children by the Russian authorities, as well as their enforced disappearances, constitute crimes against humanity. https://ukraine.un.org/uk/311741-комісія-оон-депортаціята-примусове-переміщення-українських-дітей-російською-владою-а-також

[Організація Об’єднаних Націй в Україні (2025). Комісія ООН: депортація та примусове переміщення українських дітей російською владою, а також їхні насильницькі зникнення є злочинами проти людяності].

12. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2026). Ukraine. https:// www.unhcr.org/where-we-work/countries/ukraine

13. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2026). Ukraine situation: Funding (USD). https://www.unhcr.org/emergencies/ukraine-emergency

14. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2025). Ukraine situation. https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

15. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2025). Operational Data Portal for the Ukraine refugee situation: Data explanatory note (revised in November 2025). https://data.unhcr.org/en/working-group/437

16. OECD (2026). Ukraine economic snapshot: Economic outlook — GDP and inflation projections, June 2026. https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-surveys/ ukraine-economic-snapshot.html

17. OECD (2025). International Migration Outlook 2025. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/ae26c893-en

18. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2026). Internally displaced persons in Ukraine. https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/ukr

19. Donmez, Beyza Binnur (2024). UN Population Fund says Ukraine’s population declined by estimated 10 million since 2014. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/unpopulation-fund-says-ukraine-s-population-declined-by-estimated-10m-since-2014/3370527

20. Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) (2026). Protection of civilians in armed conflict — April 2026. https://ukraine.un.org/en/316000- protection-civilians-armed-conflict-%E2%80%94-april-2026

21. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2026). World population highlights 2026. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www. un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2026_world_ population_highlightsyouth.pdf

22. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2024). Estimated population, 2023. https:// publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2024/HtmlE/G20241179.html 2

23. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2024). Vital statistics, 2023. https://publikacije. stat.gov.rs/G2024/HtmlE/G20241176.html

24. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) (2024). Population programme. https://unece.org/population