POPULATION REPRODUCTION AFTER INTENSE MILITARY CONFLICTS

Abstract

Wars are an integral part of human history. The uniqueness of the situation in Ukraine lies in the fact that a large-scale, prolonged, high-intensity war is taking place in a country whose demographic situation corresponds to the Second Demographic Transition, whereas until now, large-scale military conflicts have occurred in countries with an incomplete First Demographic Transition. This fact complicates drawing historical analogies to determine the prospects for post-war demographic recovery in Ukraine. The study aims to identify the characteristics of population reproduction in post-war countries at different stages of the First Demographic Transition. The novelty of the work lies in the fact that, for the first time, the concept of the demographic transition is used to analyze the prospects for demographic recovery in the post-war period. The main methods used were systematization, generalization, structural-logical analysis, comparative analysis, and graphical analysis. The study analyzed the main characteristics of demographic development before the outbreak of armed conflict and after its end in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Vietnam, and Rwanda. It is evident that a high fertility level and a young age structure of the population on the eve of war contributed to population growth in Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, and Rwanda, despite war losses, or to its rapid recovery despite large-scale emigration, as was the case in Syria. Bosnia and Herzegovina, although it did not restore its population size, experienced mitigated consequences of the war due to a certain excess of births over deaths in the post-war period. At the same time, certain limitations in making comparisons are related to the insufficiency of the necessary data. Full demographic recovery after a shock such as war appears unlikely for a country that has completed the First Demographic Transition, has an ultra-low birth rate, and is experiencing accelerated population aging.

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